A Dangerous COVID-19 Surge
Last week, Los Angeles County experienced the most severe increase in COVID-19 cases to date. The daily average of new cases exceeded 8,000 for each day last week, and from December 7 to December 11, the County added almost 44,000 new cases. On one day alone, Friday, December 11, the County recorded 13,815 new cases, almost 1,000 more than the previous high. In addition, the County’s seven-day average positivity rate climbed to 11.8% by Sunday, December 13, and the County’s overall test positivity broke 12% for the first time, a significant increase given that the County’s daily positivity rate was 5% at the start of November.
Finally, the County’s effective transmission rate remains above 1, at 1.14, indicating increasing community transmission.
Hospital Capacity
Hospitalizations also rose dramatically last week, exceeding 3,000 for the first time in the pandemic and bringing the cumulative COVID-19 hospitalization total to more than 30,000.
At the County Board of Supervisors meeting on Tuesday, December 8, L.A. County Health Services Director Dr. Christina Ghaly indicated that the County Department of Health Services expects hospitalizations to continue to rise in the next two weeks. New daily hospitalizations were nearing 500 as of Tuesday and could reach as many as 700 this week. New admissions are outpacing discharges at County hospitals.
In addition, the hospital demand model projects a potential shortage of hospital beds and an anticipated shortage of ICU beds. However, the supply of ventilators remains adequate.
As of Sunday, December 13, the state projected that the Southern California region’s ICU capacity was 4.2%.
Vaccinations
This week, Los Angeles County will begin administering vaccinations against COVID-19. The County is scheduled to receive approximately 83,000 initial doses of the Pfizer vaccine this week.
On December 8, L.A. County Director of Public Health Dr. Barbara Ferrer reported to the County Board of Supervisors that the second round of vaccines should arrive by December 21. The County anticipates at least one additional delivery in December (for a total of three), followed by weekly allocations thereafter in the new year.
The first batch is designated for frontline healthcare workers, prioritized based on risk, and the second batch is for nursing home healthcare staff once all frontline healthcare workers have been vaccinated in alignment with the recommendations of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices. Distribution mechanisms for Phase 1A of the distribution (frontline healthcare workers) have already been secured. Long-term care facility residents and staff will receive the vaccine from CVS and Walgreen pharmacies, through a federal partnership program.
According to a press release issued by the County on Thursday, December 10:
Additional phases of vaccination distribution will focus on essential workers and high risk groups as prioritized by [the] CDC, including seniors and those with chronic health conditions. Planning for these phases is occurring in close coordination with the CDC, [the] state health department, the local health care community, and many other community partners. Over time, as more [of the] vaccine is available[,] it will be offered to everyone. This will likely take months[,] and [the vaccine] may not be widely available to the general public until Spring/Summer 2021.